IvyArcIvyArc
6

Prosperity Angel

2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 71

Hamilton · Hamilton Park Nursery · 5f 7y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

65%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed benefit of her debut experience when off the mark in a 5f Thirsk maiden (5f) in August. Similar form when third under a penalty in a Carlisle novice (6f) 24 days ago and she ought to remain competitive now switched to a nursery.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f GF 12815/0754 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS7/0843 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 71 · 5f182y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 71 par27/083OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Carlisle33rd1st+2
2026-08-07Thirsk41st0th+1
2026-07-15Catterick53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/077/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -32.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
07/08/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
27/08/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02