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4

Fear And Fast

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 50

Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally got off the mark after 22 starts at Musselburgh last week, with a recent breathing operation evidently having benefited him, though he also went through the race much more efficiently with the headgear removed. Player if able to back that up off a 5 lb higher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 01/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f1y Sft 135 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 60 par1/106OR 606 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 58 · 5f8y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 56 · 5f1y Sft 126 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 56 par5/116OR 566 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 125 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 51 · 5f1y Gd 126 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 51 par21/056OR 516 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 49 · 5f1y Gd 125 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 47 · 5f1y Gd 127 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 47 par22/066OR 476 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f7y Goo 124 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 45 · 5f1y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 45 par12/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-07-16Hamilton67th7th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh65th5th0
2026-06-06Musselburgh66th6th0
2026-05-21Musselburgh68th8th0
2026-05-05Ayr69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/105/0522/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
15/10/20256th11/271%62%-0.10
05/11/20257th13/266%45%-0.20
05/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
21/05/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
06/06/20266th13/266%17%-0.49
22/06/20265th13/266%56%-0.10
16/07/20267th8/158%14%-0.44
12/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63