1
Impressor
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 54
Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 12/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.21 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 22% | -0.33 |
| 02/09/2026 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 8% | -0.55 |