2
Kilmac Air
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 55
Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA60 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 82% | -0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.07 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |