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6

Royal Duke

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 48

Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a much-reduced mark at Carlisle under this rider. Better than the bare result on both starts since, including when a 2-length third to Fear And Fast at Musselburgh last week (likely to have gone close with a clearer run). Meets the winner on 6 lb better terms here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 50 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6/076OR 506 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 48 · 6f GF 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 48 par20/076OR 486 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 46 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 46 par8/086OR 466 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 45 · 5f1y Goo 126 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 45 par27/086OR 456 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 49 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 49 · 5f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 49 par12/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh63rd3rd0
2026-09-09Carlisle65th5th0
2026-08-27Carlisle61st1st0
2026-08-24Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-08-08Ayr611th11th0
2026-07-27Ayr65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0727/0727/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
13/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
20/07/20266th5/287%0%-0.87
27/07/20265th5/174%43%-0.31
08/08/202611th12/137%9%-0.28
24/08/20267th8/158%33%-0.25
27/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
09/09/20265th11/142%64%+0.22
12/09/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02