3
Supremissy
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 54
Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/03/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |