5
With Glory
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 50
Hamilton · Heineken Zero Drink Responsibly At Hamilton Park Handicap · 5f 7y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/05/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |