9
Iris Dancer
8yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 62
Hamilton · Molton Brown Luxury Fragrance Fillies' Handicap · 6f 6y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 11/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |