5
Lily Pearl
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 73
Hamilton · Molton Brown Luxury Fragrance Fillies' Handicap · 6f 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Pontefract | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-09 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 09/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 78% | -0.19 |
| 20/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |