8
Pickersgill
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Hamilton · Molton Brown Luxury Fragrance Fillies' Handicap · 6f 6y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |