Cadarn
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 85
Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/06/2025 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 19/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 28/03/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 15/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |