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12

Good Morning Alex

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 70

Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Notched a seventh career success at Ripon in April 2025. Has been in the doldrums this year, though did step up on recent run when fifth of 10 at Musselburgh (9f, good to firm) 8 days ago, passing a few late on from easing mark. Needs to prove that wasn't a false dawn.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 25/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 81 · 7f173y Sft 131 · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 81 par25/064OR 814 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 83 · 7f14y Std 133 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 82 par31/013OR 824 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m5y Std 132 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m5y Std 130 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 80 par6/034OR 804 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m GS 134 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m1f20y GF 128 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 76 par20/054OR 765 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m100y Sft 141 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m208y Goo 139 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 72 par12/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh55th6th−1
2026-08-29Beverley510th11th−1
2026-05-20Ayr410th10th0
2026-04-16Ripon45th5th0
2026-03-06Newcastle48th8th0
2026-02-06Newcastle411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/066/0220/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20252nd12/137%93%+0.56
13/01/20266th22/10%0%0.00
31/01/20267th33/10%0%0.00
06/02/202611th50/10%9%+0.09
06/03/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
16/04/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
20/05/202610th12/137%10%-0.27
29/08/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
12/09/20265th33/10%56%+0.56