IvyArcIvyArc
10

Krissy

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 75

Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Forward-going type. Held on gamely to notch her fourth win of the season at Musselburgh (9f) in June and has mostly remained in good form, again finding one too strong in 7-runner event at Ayr (1¼m, soft) just 3 days ago. Respected with an easy lead potentially on the cards.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 1m208y Gd 134 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 59 par21/056OR 596 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 1m1f Goo 137 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 59 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f218y Goo 127 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 70 par31/054OR 705 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m1f170y Gd 142 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 1m208y Gd 137 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 70 par22/065OR 705 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m1f Goo 147 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m GF 133 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 73 par20/075OR 734 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 1m1f35y GS 136 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f Sft 134 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 75 par17/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr42nd2nd0
2026-08-21Hamilton42nd2nd0
2026-07-20Ayr59th10th−1
2026-07-04Carlisle54th5th−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh51st2nd−1
2026-06-17Ripon56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0517/0620/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
29/05/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
31/05/202610th11/271%10%-0.61
17/06/20266th7/491%29%-0.62
22/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
04/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
20/07/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
21/08/20262nd18/15%88%+0.82
17/09/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31