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11

Matter Of Britain

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 79

Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Victor Ludorum gelding who showed improved form to get off the mark in 8-runner maiden over C&D (good to firm) just under 6 weeks ago, drawing clear for hands-and-heels ride having travelled strongly. Shortlisted with further improvement on the cards now handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m68y Goo 13016/0755 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 13330/0754 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m68y Goo 13311/084projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Hamilton41st1st0
2026-07-30Nottingham53rd4th−1
2026-07-16Hamilton52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0730/0711/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -11.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
30/07/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
11/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21