4
Maximising
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 84
Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 36% | -0.49 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |