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5

Military Leader

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 83

Hamilton · Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Southwell and Thirsk on return in May and continued to progress in defeat before notching a third win of the season in a 15-runner event at Thirsk last month. Ran at least as from 9 lb higher when second to Monoceros at Haydock (1m) earlier in the month so folly to discount.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 1m5y Std 132 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 56 par20/126OR 565 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 1m13y Std 123 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 7f218y Goo 125 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 65 par16/055OR 655 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 7f127y Sft 133 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 68 par12/065OR 685 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 7f218y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 123 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 73 par8/084OR 735 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 73 · 7f218y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 82 · 7f212y Sft 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 82 par5/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock42nd2nd0
2026-08-14Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-08-08Ayr42nd2nd0
2026-07-16Thirsk52nd3rd−1
2026-06-12Chester52nd3rd−1
2026-06-02Newcastle53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/122/068/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20252nd2/189%89%-0.01
07/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
16/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
02/06/20263rd9/488%82%-0.06
12/06/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14
16/07/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
08/08/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
14/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
05/09/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17