Empirestateofmind
8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 64
Hamilton · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 1m 1f 35y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 06/09/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |