3
Epidavros
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 64
Hamilton · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 1m 1f 35y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |