9
Port Darwin
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 61
Hamilton · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 1m 1f 35y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |