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Ned Broy

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 64

Hamilton · Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed twice upon returning to the Flat this season, runner-up over 11f here in May, and gained a deserved first success in 9-runner handicap at Newcastle (2m) 7 weeks ago (the second scoring next time). Strong contender back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS22/1256 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 60 par4 @ Newcastle 21/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 2m190y GS 161 · HIGHER CLASS21/0244 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m1f87y GS 160 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kelso 02/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m51y GS 157 · HIGHER CLASS2/0445 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m3f15y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m4f98y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 60 par2/066OR 606 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 61 · 1m7f Sft 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 2m56y Sta 131 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 60 par31/076OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-19Ayr65th5th0
2026-06-02Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-05-03Hamilton52nd1st+1
2026-04-02Kelso48th6th+2
2026-03-20Musselburgh46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1220/032/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20256th125/10%44%+0.44
24/01/20266th17/255%50%-0.05
21/02/202610th66/10%18%+0.18
20/03/20266th150/10%44%+0.44
02/04/20268th250/10%22%+0.22
03/05/20262nd28/10%86%+0.86
02/06/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04
19/06/20265th9/276%43%-0.33
31/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21