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7

Storm On Jura

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 46

Hamilton · Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden and form has gone the wrong way of late, tried in a hood (now discarded) when well-beaten eighth of 12 in handicap at Thirsk 6 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m208y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 58 par13/105OR 585 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m208y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m4f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 54 par4/066OR 546 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 52 · 1m1f35y Goo 135 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m4f104y Gd 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 50 par30/066OR 506 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f Gd 130 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 48 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 48 par8/086OR 486 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 1m4f15y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 46 · 1m4f8y Goo 130 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 46 par14/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk68th8th0
2026-08-11Hamilton68th8th0
2026-08-08Ayr611th11th0
2026-07-06Ayr68th8th0
2026-06-30Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-06-17Hamilton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1017/068/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength23%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20259th80/10%0%0.00
26/04/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
04/06/20269th6/168%20%-0.48
17/06/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
30/06/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
06/07/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
08/08/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
11/08/20268th20/10%0%0.00
14/09/20268th20/10%36%+0.36