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3

Uncle Liam

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 57

Hamilton · Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened account over this C&D in June and forged clear to double his tally here (11f, soft) 18 days ago by 2¾ lengths from Dandy's Angel. Not taken lightly with conditions to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 1m68y Goo 119 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 45 par3/096OR 455 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 1m Sft 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 47 par6 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 51 · 1m Hvy 124 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 51 par9/106OR 516 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 51 · 1m1f20y Goo 122 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m68y Gd 126 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 51 par15/056OR 516 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 50 · 1m4f15y Goo 131 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 53 · 1m3f15y Goo 133 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 53 par17/066OR 536 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m2f Gd 136 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m3f15y Sft 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 52 par2/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton61st1st0
2026-07-05Ayr64th4th0
2026-06-17Hamilton65th5th0
2026-06-04Hamilton61st1st0
2026-05-15Hamilton68th8th0
2026-05-05Ayr68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/095/0517/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20252nd9/153%86%+0.33
19/09/20252nd18/15%88%+0.82
09/10/20252nd11/271%91%+0.20
05/05/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
15/05/20268th11/486%0%-0.86
04/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/06/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
05/07/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
02/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13