Amberia
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ascot | 1 | 10th | 3rd | +6 |
| 2025-06-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | -3th | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 26/07/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |