2
Awesome Mckinzie
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |