4
Band On The Run
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |