1
C C Commander
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 62
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |