Check Ride

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 65

Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Penn National	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-08-05	Penn National	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-07-07	Penn National	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-04-26	Laurel Park	?	7th	9th	−2	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength51%

Delivery trend +25.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/04/2026	7th	13/2	66%	25%	-0.41
07/07/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
05/08/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	71%	+0.08
20/08/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26