10
Molly The Great
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 73
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |