Scarlet's Dream
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 72
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 25/05/2025 | 3rd | 1/2 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |