9
Rio Grande
3yo Gelding · 8-10
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 30/12/2025 | 8th | 11/8 | 93% | 22% | -0.71 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/4 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |