Beltane
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |