7

On The Level

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 70

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 16/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS16/11C6C6 @ Delaware Park 11/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 88 par11/09C6OR 88C8 @ Churchill Downs 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 7f 118 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 96 par8/11C8OR 96C5 @ Turfway Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 96 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 96 par9/01C5OR 96C5 @ Churchill Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 92 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 92 par3/06C5OR 92C5 @ Ellis Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par25/07C5OR 88C7 @ Colonial Downs 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 82 par16/08C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Colonial Downs?6th5th+1
2026-07-25Ellis Park?6th3rd+3
2026-06-03Churchill Downs?9th6th+3
2026-01-09Turfway Park?10th7th+3
2025-11-08Churchill Downs?1st1st0
2025-09-11Delaware Park?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/119/0116/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength36%

Delivery trend -10.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20242nd13/266%86%+0.20
11/09/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
08/11/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
09/01/202610th3/184%18%-0.66
03/06/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
25/07/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
16/08/20266th6/168%0%-0.68