
On The Level
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 70
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 18% | -0.66 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |