4
Tiz The Great
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 67
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |