8
Freedom Hall
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 58
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +11.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |