10
Futile Gesture
2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |