5
One Time
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 57
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |