Conceptualize
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 81
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Pimlico | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 13/04/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 18/05/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 14/06/2024 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 14/03/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 19/04/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 36% | -0.32 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |