Just Add Water
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 82
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |