Lucky Lis

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 71

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength39%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	?	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2026-07-11	Colonial Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-06-19	Laurel Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-05	Laurel Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-05-14	Laurel Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▬

Strength0%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 15.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/10/2025	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
18/04/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	90%	+0.43
25/04/2026	5th	9/2	76%	50%	-0.26
14/05/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88
05/06/2026	4th	16/1	16%	67%	+0.51
19/06/2026	3rd	11/10	94%	71%	-0.23
11/07/2026	6th	16/1	16%	38%	+0.22
09/08/2026	7th	7/2	82%	45%	-0.36
27/08/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24