Raven Dance
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 64
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |