Red Burgundy

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#14

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-13	Colonial Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-05-15	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-01-02	Turfway Park	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-10-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2025-09-11	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2025-08-06	Saratoga	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength19%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/11/2024	2nd	5/4	93%	89%	-0.05
15/12/2024	9th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
17/05/2025	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
06/08/2025	4th	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38
11/09/2025	6th	7/2	82%	29%	-0.53
24/10/2025	6th	11/2	71%	44%	-0.27
02/01/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
15/05/2026	4th	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38
13/07/2026	4th	3/1	84%	0%	-0.84