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11

Thisishowwedoit

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS9/07C6C6 @ Laurel Park 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 57 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 57 par17/04C6OR 57C9 @ Penn National 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 52 · 5f 121 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 52 par6/05C9OR 52C6 @ Penn National 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 52 par2/06C6OR 52C7 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 56 par20/06C7OR 56C8 @ Colonial Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 65 par30/07C8OR 65C8 @ Colonial Downs 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 72 par28/08C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-07-30Colonial Downs?1st1st0
2026-06-20Laurel Park?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-02Penn National?1st-1th+2
2026-05-06Penn National?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-17Laurel Park?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/072/0628/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20253rd15/261%78%+0.17
17/04/20265th11/486%0%-0.86
06/05/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
02/06/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
20/06/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
30/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
28/08/20265th4/179%43%-0.36