Yo Adrian
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |