4
Margaret P
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 67
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 19/04/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |