Moon Cache

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 82

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Delaware Park	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-08-08	Delaware Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-07-29	Delaware Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-06-24	Delaware Park	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-06-06	Delaware Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-05-20	Delaware Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/03/2026	3rd	4/5	96%	0%	-0.96
28/03/2026	5th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
18/04/2026	6th	9/1	53%	17%	-0.36
20/05/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40
06/06/2026	4th	14/1	26%	40%	+0.14
24/06/2026	6th	33/1	0%	17%	+0.17
29/07/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40
08/08/2026	2nd	5/4	93%	75%	-0.18
05/09/2026	8th	14/1	26%	22%	-0.04