8
Utopia Rose
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |