1
Finch
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -14.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 22/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |