4
Fire's Out
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 05/06/2025 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |