2
Miss Picky
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 10th | 5th | +5 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -15.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 10% | -0.53 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |