3
Vex
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |